I Predict a [Political] Riot

Yes, I'm totally watching coverage of the 2019 local government elections in England tonight. UK politics is clearly on my mind.

Is Sir John Curtice on TV? Yes, yes he is. Coverage of 2019 Local Elections

In about a week, I’ll be in a plane flying across the pond to lead my third group of Montana State British politics students across the UK. While the trip has evolved (from three to two weeks) and the cities have changed a bit (Belfast and York were dropped; Cardiff added), there has been one constant: We tend to show up when things in British politics are utterly fascinating and unexpected. 

For example:

1.      In 2015, we arrived two weeks after the General Election where the Conservatives, beat the odds and won a majority. All the polls and prediction models suggested a hung Parliament with Labour holding the most seats. But it was not to be. Ed Miliband resigned, Nick Clegg was out, David Cameron was a political genius, and we got tickets to the Queen’s Speech Debate.

2.      In 2017, David Cameron had left Number 10 in disgrace after losing the EU Referendum. Teresa May, looking at polls suggesting the Conservatives would crush a Corbyn-led Labour Party, went to Parliament and asked for an Election under the terms of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act. Conservatives happily voted for an election and so did Labour—with perhaps some members of the PLP hoping a Labour wipeout might force Corbyn from the leadership. We showed upon the middle of the campaign, and canvassed for both Labour and the Tories in a marginal seat in North London. We left before the campaign concluded, but again, the unexpected transpired: May lost her majority and was forced into a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP.

3.      This time, we will drop into Edinburgh in the wake of May failing to pass her Brexit plan in Parliament after several goes, the date of Brexit pushed back to perhaps October, possible European elections to be held on May 23^rd, and a set of local election results with a shocking showing for the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Independent candidates. And, perhaps—just perhaps—Teresa May will no longer be Prime Minister by the time we leave on May 26^th.

I can’t wait to land, again, in the middle of unprecedented political times and to show my students the Britain I’ve come to know and love. The one thing I’m itching to ask British politicians is if we are at the cusp of a fundamental transformation in the party system. Recent events seem to suggest precisely that: Voters are punishing the parties in their strongholds, suggesting both an exhaustion with the status quo and the apparent inability of either party to produce results. May and the Tories can’t seem to get the UK out of the EU, and Labour can’t seem to present a competent and compelling alternative. Which either party survive intact? That’s the £65,000 question.